Ongoing shifts in U.S. trade policy — including court decisions, new agreements, and tariff adjustments — are actively reshaping the global business landscape. This summary highlights recent developments and their strategic relevance to business competitiveness, operational planning, and risk mitigation.
IEEPA tariffs case now in the Supreme Court
On August 29, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled that the U.S. administration exceeded its authority in issuing reciprocal and fentanyl tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The case is now moving to the Supreme Court, and the tariffs will continue in place during the appeal period.
If the Supreme Court rules against the administration, entities that paid tariffs may be entitled to a refund. At this time, it’s not clear whether the refunds would be automatic or whether importers would need to file for refunds with U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP). Accordingly, companies should review their customs data, identify and track entries subject to IEEPA tariffs, and be ready to file a claim with the CBP if a refund window opens.
Executive order modifies the scope of reciprocal tariffs
On Sept. 5, 2025, the U.S. administration published a new executive order (EO), “Modifying the Scope of Reciprocal Tariffs and Establishing Procedures for Implementing Trade and Security Agreements,” which modifies Executive Order 14257 issued on April 2, 2025, by updating the tariff schedules in Annex II and establishing a new Annex III. The updates became effective Sept. 8, 2025.
It’s anticipated that the annexes will continue to be updated as the administration seeks submissions for items or HTS codes that may qualify for addition to the tariffs on steel and auto parts issued under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 (Section 232).
Executive order to implement the U.S.-Japan trade agreement
On Sept. 4, 2025, the U.S. administration released an EO implementing the U.S.-Japan trade agreement announced on July 22, 2025, which sets the general tariff to 15% for imports from Japan. Automobiles and parts from Japan will be subject to a 15% tariff as determined by most-favored-nation (MFN) commitments under WTO rules. For MFN tariffs below 15%, additional duties will apply under Section 232. The 15% tariff is retroactive to products entered for consumption or withdrawn from the warehouse for consumption on or after 12:01 a.m. Eastern Standard Time on Aug. 7, 2025, so companies should use CBP procedures to apply for any refunds due.
Trade relations with India
Trade negotiations continue between the United States and India. Until recently, India was considered a strong prospective destination for companies moving operations from China, but in August 2025, the United States imposed a 25% reciprocal tariff on Indian goods, followed by an additional 25% penalty due to India’s continued purchases of Russian oil. India’s rates are currently higher than China’s, and one of the highest globally. The United States and India have agreed to additional talks to resolve the trade impasse. We note that these are IEEPA tariffs that may be subject to reversal by the Supreme Court.
De minimis treatment has been suspended
With the suspension of the de minimis tariff exemption effective Aug. 29, 2025, items valued at or below $800 imported from all countries are now “subject to all applicable duties, taxes, and fees.” Postal shipments are subject to either an ad valorem duty (a percentage calculated on the declared value of the item) based on the effective IEEPA tariff applicable to the country of origin, or a specific duty ranging from $80 to $200 per item depending on the applicable IEEPA tariff rate. Many online companies are now scrambling to find ways to keep volume and sales at current levels and, for some, determining whether they’ll need to absorb the de minimis tariffs to remain competitive.
USMCA six-year review begins
The six-year review of the Agreement between the United States, Mexico, and Canada (USMCA) started on Sept. 17, 2025, with the U.S. Trade Representative’s request for public comments and notice of public hearing. The deadline for public comments is Nov. 3, 2025, and a public hearing will be held on Nov. 17, 2025.
EU implementation
On September 25, the U.S. administration published a Federal Register notice announcing the formal implementation of the trade agreement reached with the European Union (EU) earlier in the summer. The agreement includes a 15% duty rate on European autos and auto parts that’s retroactive to August 1. A note in Annex I of the notice includes items exempted from Executive Order 14257, including certain natural resource products, generic pharmaceuticals, aircraft and aircraft parts, and other items.
Tariff announcements on trucks, furniture, and pharmaceuticals await formal executive action
On Sept. 25, 2025, President Donald Trump announced via Truth Social a new round of import tariffs targeting key sectors. Tariffs that took effect on Oct. 1, 2025, include 100% on branded or patented pharmaceutical drugs, 50% on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, 30% on upholstered furniture. A 25% tariff on heavy trucks, and potentially heavy truck parts, is scheduled to take effect on Nov. 1, 2025. The pharmaceutical tariff will not apply to companies actively building manufacturing plants in the United States, defined as “breaking ground” or “under construction.” These measures follow Section 232 investigations launched earlier this year and are justified by the administration as necessary for national security and domestic manufacturing protection.
Section 232 investigation into robotics and industrial machinery
On Sept. 24, 2025, the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) launched a Section 232 investigation to assess whether imports of robotics and industrial machinery pose a threat to U.S. national security. This move could lead to tariffs or import restrictions by Spring 2026, though the Trump administration signaled it may act faster.
The investigation covers a broad range of industrial equipment, including:
- CNC machining centers, and turning and milling machines.
- Grinding, deburring, stamping, and pressing machines.
- Automatic tool changers, jigs, fixtures.
- Specialty metalworking equipment (e.g., autoclaves, industrial ovens).
- Laser and water-cutting tools and EDM machinery.
- Unmanned aircraft systems are excluded, as they fall under a separate Section 232 review.
Public comments close Oct. 17, 2025. Investigations can take up to 270 days (with the latest completion date being in May 2026). Public hearings are discretionary under Section 232, and no hearing is currently planned. If BIS concludes that imports falling within these categories impair national security, the president can impose tariffs or other restrictions. Stakeholders are encouraged to participate in the comment process to influence the outcome.
Section 232 investigation into medical products
On Sept. 2, 2025, the U.S. Department of Commerce initiated a Section 232 investigation into a wide variety of medical products, including personal protective equipment used in healthcare settings, medical consumables, medical equipment, and medical devices. Imports of pharmaceuticals aren’t included in this investigation and are being evaluated in a separate investigation. The public comment period related to this investigation closes on October 17, followed by a 270-day reporting period.
Section 232 tariffs on timber, lumber, and derivatives
On Sept. 29, 2025, the U.S. administration issued a presidential proclamation pursuant to Section 232 asserting that imports of wood products threaten to impair U.S. national security. Accordingly, it imposed new tariffs as follows.
- Softwood timber and lumber: 10% ad valorem at entry. The tariffs apply Oct. 14, 2025.
- Upholstered wooden furniture: 25% at entry, increasing to 30% on Jan. 1, 2026 (unless superseded by negotiated arrangements).
- Kitchen cabinets and vanities (including parts): 25% at entry, increasing to 50% on Jan. 1, 2026.
- Country‑specific caps: The United Kingdom is capped at 10%, and the EU and Japan are capped at a combined Section 232 and MFN rate of 15% under their frameworks with the United States.
The tariffs apply to goods entered for consumption or withdrawn from warehouse on or after 12:01 a.m. Eastern Standard Time, Oct. 14, 2025. Homebuilders and contractors, home furnishings, and kitchen and bath manufacturers/distributors face the most direct exposure, but it’s expected that these additional tariffs will affect the broader supply chain as well.
What do these recent developments mean for business?
Even though several trade agreements have been reached with the United States, only three — with the U.K., Japan, and the EU — have been fully implemented to date. Negotiations and implementation plans with other countries are ongoing. The upcoming USMCA negotiations may be of greater significance to many U.S. companies given the extensive amount of free trade between the partners.
In the next few months, it’s expected that tariff and trade uncertainty will remain until the Supreme Court issues a ruling on the IEEPA case, additional trade deals are agreed on and potentially signed, and modifications to products subject to Section 232 tariffs are announced. In the meantime, companies with relatively easy adjustments to their supply chains should continue to act to minimize current (and future) tariff exposure, while those facing larger, long-term capital investments plan alternative strategies while awaiting more clarity.
